Projections
Projections of E2Gov is devoted to producing projections of data contained in data manager, energy and air pollutants emissions over the future years and is fully integrated with E2Gov regarding the starting year data and all other information. The module integrates and extends the system for the projection of determinants, energy variables and emissions previously released by Techne Consulting.
Projections allows to model global area actions and local interventions on individual points, lines, areas and statistical zones. The model also allows the inclusion of new lines, areas and points.
The module is aimed at projecting the data base (contained in Data Manager, the emissions of pollutants (contained in Emissions) and the energy balance data (contained in Data Manager).
The projection is developed by the definition of scenarios (regarding basic data, emissions, energy). Each scenario involves a selection of variables (in the case of basic data), activities (in the case of emissions) and balance sheet items (in the case of energy).
The scenarios are composed of a set of drivers capable of simulating the evolution of variables and a set of drivers capable of simulating, in the case of the emissions, the development of the related emission factors.
Drivers can be associated to the whole area or selected statistical lines, areas, points.
For example, regarding the projection of the data base the following can be evaluated:
- Trends of energy demand
- Trends of industrial production
- Trend of registered road vehicls fleet, average miles and consumption
- Evolution of household consumptions determinants
Regarding the projection of the emission factors, various technologies can be evaluated to reduce emissions of pollutants and their respective drivers assigned.
Drivers can be shared by multiple variables and by areas, lines and points; for example, the population factor can be used to project the consumptions of household paint, as well as fuel consumption in the domestic sector and the sulfur content in diesel fuel can be used to project the emission factors of sulfur oxides in both industry and in services. Moreover, the introduction of a desulphurizer may be common to multiple points or lines or areas.